Centre for Risk Studies

4th Risk Summit

Risk & Strategy - Returns versus Resilience

17-18 June 2013

In June 2013 the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies brought together leaders and decision makers from business, government, intergovernmental organisations, academia and NGOs to explore the inter-linkages between risk and strategy. Risk is usually perceived as the threat of loss, with predominantly negative connotations. This meeting challenged these perceptions and promote debate about opportunities inherent in a risky environment.

Risk Summit Keynote Speaker

Woody Powell, Professor of Sociology, Organizational Behavior, Management Science & Engineering, and Communication (by courtesy), Stanford University
Gillian Tett, Markets and Finance Commentator & Assistant Editor, Financial Times

Risk Summit Dinner Speaker

David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge


Photo Gallery

4th Risk Summit - Risk & Strategy - Returns versus Resilience

Risk & Strategy - Returns versus Resilience

Photos from the 4th Risk Summit, held at Cambridge Judge Business School on 17-18 June 2013, are available via Flickr.

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Meeting Partners

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Speakers

Gary Bowman

Gary Bowman, Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

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Speaker bio

Gary Bowman is a Research Associate in the Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge Judge Business School and the Cambridge-Singapore Risk Fellow. Gary is a leading contributor on the Cambridge Risk Framework, has published research in internationally recognised journals, and is the recipient of British Academy/Leverhulme funding. Specialising in scenario planning, organisational sensemaking and strategy, Gary has taught at the Universities of Strathclyde and St Andrews, and has consulted for a variety of public and private sector institutions on scenario-based strategic planning. He holds a MA and PhD from the University of St Andrews.

Fabio Caccioli

Fabio Caccioli, Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Speaker bio

Fabio Caccioli is a postdoctoral research associate at the Centre for Risk Studies. He also continues to be involved in research activities at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, and was previously a postdoctoral fellow at the Santa Fe Institute in Santa Fe, New Mexico (USA). He holds a PhD in Statistical Physics from the International School for Advanced Studies in Trieste (Italy). His research mainly focuses on systemic risk and financial stability. Other research interests include complex networks and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. His contribution to the study of systemic risk includes the study of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios and the study of the impact of derivatives for financial stability.

Tiago Cavalcanti

Tiago Cavalcanti, Senior Lecturer, University of Cambridge Department of Economics

Speaker bio

Tiago Cavalcanti, who was born in Recife, Brazil, holds a PhD in Economics from University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He is a senior lecturer in Economics at the University of Cambridge, and is a fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge. He has taught at Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal), Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (Brazil), and Purdue University (USA). He was invited for academic visits at University of Illinois, University of Manchester, Banco de Portugal and Banco Central de la Republica Argentina. Dr Tiago Cavalcanti's teaching and research focus on macroeconomics and economic development. His research has appeared in scientific journals in economics such as the Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of the European Economic Association, among others. He is the managing editor of the B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. He has also done some consulting work for the Brazilian Ministry of Finance, Brazilian Ministry of Health, Brazilian Northeast Bank, Corporacion Andina de Fomento, among other institutions.

David Champion

David Champion, Senior Editor, Harvard Business Review

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David Champion is a senior editor at Harvard Business Review and serves as its European correspondent, based in France.

Dr Andrew Coburn

Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of the External Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies and Senior Vice President, RMS

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Speaker bio

Dr Andrew Coburn is the Director of External Advisory Board at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. Andrew is Senior Vice President at Risk Management Solutions, the leading provider of catastrophe risk models to the insurance industry. Andrew is currently coordinating the research programme on System Shock at the Centre for Risk Studies, involving managing the risk of shocks to networks. Andrew is one of the leading contributors to the creation of the class of catastrophe models that over the past 20 years has come to be an accepted part both of business management in financial services and of public policy making for societal risk. He has extensive experience in developing models and using them for business decision support.

D'Maris Coffman

D'Maris Coffman, College Lecturer, Newnham College and Director, Centre for Financial History

Speaker bio

D'Maris Coffman received her MA and PhD in History from the University of Pennsylvania and her BSc in Economics from the Wharton School. She is currently the Mary Bateson Research Fellow at Newnham College, Cambridge, and the director of the Winton Centre for Financial History there. Most of her current research is on the relationship between public finance and private capital markets in early modern and early late modern Europe. She manages the European State Finance Database. In addition to her service teaching for the historical tripos, she has offered courses to advanced undergraduates and graduate students at Penn and Cambridge in early modern public finance, economic thought, and the development of financial capitalism.

Mark Davies

Mark Davies, Head of Group Risk, Rio Tinto

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Speaker bio

Mark Davies, Head of Group Risk, Rio Tinto, is responsible for establishing a holistic Group wide approach to risk management. This involves working in partnership with the organisation so as to develop a risk culture where risk management is sustainable, well supported and embedded in the way the Group operates. Risk roles and experience include: 1) The application of risk management in a wide variety of commercial, technical and managerial settings. 2) The introduction of holistic executive and board level reporting. 3) A keen interest in driving a holistic approach to risk management, coordinating multiple risk control systems across the organisation and embedding risk management into core management processes. Previous experience and education: Mark has held a wide variety of Commercial Technical and managerial roles in Australia, the USA and the UK. He has an honours degree in mechanical engineering and a PhD in engineering from Adelaide University in Australia.

William Dick

William Dick, Consultant, World Bank and Consultant & UN World Food Programme

Speaker bio

William Dick is a consultant in international agricultural risk management and insurance. Since 2005 his main appointments have been to The World Bank, where he works on risk management solutions on behalf of government departments, agricultural banks, and the insurance sector; to WFP for the R4 rural resilience programme in Africa; and to WFP-IFAD on research into remote sensing applications for agricultural index insurance. In 1983 William Dick founded Agricultural Risk Management Ltd, a leading consultancy in risk assessment and in the design of agricultural and forestry insurance programmes for private and public sector clients. In 2000 he joined Partner Reinsurance Company, Zurich, as a senior underwriter for global agricultural business. William Dick has worked for 30 years in international agricultural risk management and insurance.

Gerard Evan

Gerard Evan, Head of Department and Professor, Department of Biochemistry, University of Cambridge

Speaker bio

Gerard Evan, FRS, Christ's College Cambridge, is the Head of Department and Sir William Dunn Chair of Biochemistry in the University of Cambridge. Since 1999, he was the Gerson and Barbara Bass Bakar Distinguished Professor of Cancer Biology at the University of California, San Francisco. He was awarded the Pfizer prize in Biology in 1995 and in 1996 was elected as the Royal Society's Napier Professor of Cancer Research. In 1999 he was elected a Fellow of the UK Academy of Medical Sciences. Gerard received his BA in Biochemistry from the St. Peter's College, Oxford and his PhD in Molecular Immunology from King's College, Cambridge.

J. Doyne Farmer

J. Doyne Farmer, Professor of Mathematics and Co-Director of Complexity Economics, Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

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J. Doyne Farmer is an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. He has broad interests in complex systems, and has done research in dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology. At present his main interest is in developing quantitative theories for social evolution, in particular for financial markets (which provide an accurate record of decision making in a complex environment) and the evolution of technologies (whose performance through time provides a quantitative record of one component of progress). He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative trading firm that was recently sold to the United Bank of Switzerland, and was their chief scientist from 1991-1999. During the eighties he worked at Los Alamos National Laboratory, where he was an Oppenheimer Fellow, founding the Complex Systems Group in the theoretical division. He began his career as part of the U.C. Santa Cruz Dynamical Systems Collective, a group of physics graduate students who did early research in what later came to be called "chaos theory". In his spare time during graduate school he led a group that designed and built the first wearable digital computers (which were used to beat the game of roulette). For popular press see The Newtonian Casino by Thomas Bass, Chaos by Jim Gleick, Complexity by Mitch Waldrup, and The Predictors by Thomas Bass.

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Andrew Freeman

Andrew Freeman, Risk Fellow, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Managing Director, Cambridge Research Associates Ltd

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Speaker bio

Andrew Freeman is a Risk Fellow at the Centre for Risk Studies. In addition, he is Managing Director of Cambridge Research Associates, an independent research and risk advisory company, and Director, Demos Finance, part of the Demos think tank. In addition, he is an Independent Risk Advisor and Author. He was formerly the Executive Director of the Center for Financial Services at Deloitte Services LLP and was responsible for the development of the Center's research platforms and key activities. Andrew's focus is on building relationships with strategic clients and leading the development of a firm's intellectual capital on financial services industry issues. Before joining Deloitte, Andrew was a Senior Knowledge Expert in Risk at McKinsey & Company. Prior to that, Andrew was an award winning financial journalist for more than two decades at The Economist and the Financial Times. He has authored several books.

Louise Gutteridge

Louise Gutteridge, Events and Operations Manager, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Speaker bio

Louise Gutteridge is the Events and Operations Manager at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. She acts as the first point of contact for the Centre and works closely with the team, organising events and providing administrative support. Louise has worked for the University of Cambridge for two years and is at the Judge Business School on secondment from the Institute of Continuing Education, where she worked as a Programme Administrator organising the University's International Summer Schools. Louise has previously worked in the academic publishing industry, and has a BSc in Business Management from the University of East Anglia.

Sven Heiligtag

Sven Heiligtag, Principal, McKinsey & Company

Speaker bio

Sven Heiligtag is a principal in McKinsey's Risk practice and the global leader of the Firm's Corporate Risk Service Line. Since joining the Firm's Hamburg office in 2001, Sven has worked for clients in over 20 countries. Sven works primarily with clients from the energy and natural resources space and focuses strategic risk/return management and market and commercial risk, e.g., strategic portfolio management, scenario-based decision making, establishing trading and risk management strategies, organisational processes and governance mechanism. Sven is leading our corporate enterprise risk management survey as well as our commercial performance survey focus on trading and risk management approaches for market related risks. Next to his risk work, Sven is serving a variety of clients from the energy and natural resources space across the board on strategic, organisation, efficiency, corporate finance and leadership topics. Prior to joining McKinsey, Sven completed a PhD in chemistry at the University of Hamburg.

Ashley Hirst

Ashley Hirst, Head of Science, Global Distribution and EMEA at AIG

Speaker bio

Ashley Hirst, AIG SVP Head of Science, EMEA and Global Distribution. Ashley is the Head of Science for AIG's Property Casualty business in EMEA, and the distribution function worldwide. He is responsible for improving the quality of data-driven decision making across the business, and bringing an ever more scientific approach and rigour to the business judgements made every day.

Prior to joining AIG in June 2012, Ashley was a leader in McKinsey's Insurance practice, based in the London office. He has worked extensively with several major European and global insurers and retail banks on a broad range of issues, with a focus on distribution, strategy and operations. Ashley has a Masters in Finance from London Business School, and a BSc in Mathematics and Computer Science from the University of Manchester.

Roman Hohl

Roman Hohl, CEO Asia Risk Centre and Deputy Director, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management (ICRM), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore

Speaker bio

Roman Hohl obtained his PhD from the University of Fribourg, Switzerland and won the prestigious award for the best PhD thesis in Switzerland in the field of natural hazard research from the Swiss National Platform for Natural Hazards Swiss (PLANAT). Based on the research of his PhD thesis, Roman developed with two research colleagues and the support of the reinsurer Swiss Re, the first probabilistic hail loss model for Europe that allows the calculation of hail losses to property and motor insurance portfolios - since 2006, the software belongs to a leading catastrophe modeling company.

Dr Hohl has worked in the reinsurance industry in the field of risk management, underwriting and risk modeling for the last 12 years at Partner Re (2001-2004), Converium (2005-2008) and Swiss Re (2009-2012) which is the world's second largest reinsurer. Besides heading underwriting teams and building the corporate agriculture desk for Swiss Re, he has implemented in collaboration with the insurance industry and government new agriculture insurance schemes in Brazil (Converium, 2004) and Vietnam (Swiss Re, 2011). Roman has been an active participant in the World Economic Forum's New Vision for Agriculture Initiative as a member of the project group for Vietnam (2011-2012) and Indonesia (2012).

Since September 2012, Roman acts as chief executive officer of Asia Risk Centre (ARC), an affiliate of the world's leading catastrophe modeling company Risk Management Solutions (RMS). ARC specialises in risk quantification and modeling of catastrophe risk to agriculture and food security in emerging markets with an initial focus on Asia. ARC also develops new parametric risk transfer schemes that allow the consistent insurance of the underprivileged populations in Asia's megacities against impacts from natural hazards.

Downloadable resources:
Slides
Michael G Jacobides

Michael G Jacobides, Sir Donald Gordon Chair of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Strategy & Entrepreneurship Department, London Business School

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Speaker bio

Michael G Jacobides holds the Sir Donald Gordon Chair of Entrepreneurship & Innovation at London Business School, where he is Associate Professor of Strategy. He currently is a Visiting Research Professor at NYU - Stern, and has been on the faculties of Wharton and Harvard Business School, and visited Bocconi, U. of Paris and Singapore Management University. He serves on the Global Advisory Council of the World Economic Forum and studied in Athens, Cambridge, Stanford and Wharton, where he obtained his PhD. Michael's focus is change: he studies industry evolution, new business models, turnarounds and structural change in firms and sectors. A frequent speaker in industry and corporate events, he works, among others, with Credit Suisse, Santander, BBVA, Goldman Sachs, Zurich, EADS, Lufthansa, Vodafone, Nokia, McKinsey, PwC, KPMG, MerckSerono, Roche and the NHS on executive development and strategy. On policy, he is working with the WEF, the UK parliament (on the future of Financial Services), the European Council (on a task-force advising Van Rompuy on Innovation & Entrepreneurship) and has spearheaded the www.RedesignGreece.org initiative, which aims to inform the debate on restructuring the Greek public administration. A Vice President of the European Academy of Management, Michael has published in the top academic journals such as SMJ, Organization Science, Research Policy, AMR and ICC where he is Associate Editor. He writes for the Harvard Business Review, FT, Forbes.com, Huffington Post, To Vima and Kathimerini and has been interviewed by the BBC, NPR, TheStreet.com, Reuters, Bloomberg, SKAI, NET and ANT1.

William H. Janeway

William H. Janeway, Senior Advisor, Warburg Pincus

Speaker bio

William H. Janeway is Senior Advisor at Warburg Pincus. He joined Warburg Pincus in 1988 and was responsible for building the information technology investment practice. Previously, he was executive vice president and director at Eberstadt Fleming. Dr Janeway is a director of Magnet Systems, Nuance Communications, O'Reilly Media, and a member of the Board of Managers of Roubini Global Economics. Dr Janeway is Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Cambridge in America, University of Cambridge and a Member of the Board of Managers of the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF). Dr Janeway is a member of the board of directors of the Social Science Research Council and the board of governors of the Institute for New Economic Thinking and of the Advisory Boards of the Princeton Bendheim Center for Finance and the MIT-Sloan Finance Group. He is the author of Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Markets Speculation and the State, to be published by Cambridge University Press in November 2012. Dr Janeway received his doctorate in economics from Cambridge University where he was a Marshall Scholar. He was valedictorian of the class of 1965 at Princeton University.

Christoph H. Loch

Christoph Loch, Director, University of Cambridge Judge Business School & Professor of Management Studies

Speaker bio

Christoph H. Loch is Director, Cambridge Judge Business School and Professor of Management Studies. Director of the INSEAD Israel Research Center (2008-2011) and Dean of the PhD Programme (Sep 2006-Aug 2009), INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France. Associate (client consulting team member), McKinsey & Company, San Francisco, USA, and Munich, Germany (Oct 1991-Dec 1993). Strategic Analyst (competitor and industry analyses), Siemens AG, Munich, Germany (Summers 1986-1989). Lecturer (evening MBA course on Management Science and undergraduate course in Operations Management), University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA (Jan-Jul 1987). Non-executive Director of educational software start-up company Prendo (2000-present). Professor Loch has been the Chairman of the Behavioral Operations Management section of INFORMS (2008-2010), Department Editor for both Management Science (R&D and Innovation department) (2004-2009) and Production and Operations Management (2003-2007, and the special issue on behavioural operations management in 2011), and Associate Editor of Management Science, (2000-2004, 2009-2011), Manufacturing and Service Operations Management (M&SOM) (2003-2011) and Operations Research (1998-2004).

Michael Maran

Michael Maran, Chief Science Officer, Catlin Group

Speaker bio

Michael Maran graduated from St. Catharine's College, Cambridge in 1983 with a bachelor's degree in Natural Sciences (having studied the biological and geological sciences) and subsequently a master's degree and PhD in Astrophysics from Queen Mary College, University of London. He is an ACII qualified Chartered Insurer with 30 years of experience in the insurance industry, and a Fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society. Mike joined the Catlin Group in 2002 and spent 10 years as Underwriter for the Space account. In 2012, he was appointed as the Catlin Group's Chief Science Officer, and is also chairman of the Group's Emerging Risks Committee.

In this new role, Mike will work with Catlin underwriters, risk modellers, actuaries and other employees to improve Catlin's risk assessment capabilities by reviewing the scientific aspects of risks. He will also identify new underwriting opportunities for Catlin created by scientific progress, and he will serve as an advisor for various Catlin activities that are related to science, such as the current Catlin Seaview Survey.

Downloadable resources:
Slides
Andrew Palmer

Andrew Palmer, Finance Editor, The Economist

Speaker bio

Andrew Palmer has been the finance editor of The Economist since June 2009. He was previously the newspaper's banking correspondent; in this role he authored two special reports on international banking. Before joining The Economist in 2007 he held a variety of editorial and management positions at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Before joining the Economist Group, he monitored media coverage of elections in Eastern Europe on behalf of the European Union.

Tso-Chien Pan

Tso-Chien Pan, Professor and Executive Director, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management (ICRM), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore

Speaker bio

Tso-Chien Pan is the Executive Director and Founding Director of Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management (ICRM) at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He is the former Dean of the College of Engineering at NTU. Professor Pan specialises in the analysis and design of structures against dynamic loading. Over the years, he has carried out many research projects in the area of dynamic structural response to shock and blast loading, as well as earthquake excitations. As Founding Director, Professor Pan is spearheading the development of ICRM, a university-wide research institute, to look into the effects of natural and man-made disasters on the society.

Will Pearson

Will Pearson, Director, Eurasia Group's Global Energy and Natural Resources

Speaker bio

Will Pearson is an analyst in Eurasia Group's Global Energy and Natural Resources practice. His research focuses on global electricity, coal and natural gas markets, energy efficiency, and clean energy technologies. Will holds a master's degree from the University of California, San Diego, School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, and a BA in history and business from James Madison University.

Previously, Will was a senior analyst in the power market advisory group at Pace Global, an energy consultancy, where he advised clients on the economic viability of power generation projects in markets worldwide. Before Pace, he worked on the electricity trading desk at Sempra Energy Solutions, a retail energy supplier.

Martin Pergler

Martin Pergler, Senior Expert, McKinsey & Co

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Speaker bio

Martin Pergler is a senior expert in McKinsey's Risk practice and a global leader of the firm's ERM and Risk analytics service lines. Since joining the firm's Chicago office in 2000, Mr Pergler has worked for clients in over 30 countries. He is currently based in the Montréal office. Mr Pergler works primarily with clients outside the financial sector, e.g. industrials, natural resources firms, and conglomerates. Mr Pergler also focuses on incorporating risk in strategic decisionmaking, for instance in project/portfolio decisions and strategic planning under uncertainty. Mr Pergler is one of the authors of McKinsey's overall ERM framework and diagnostic toolkit and is a lead faculty member for McKinsey's consultant and client training on risk. He also co-manages our risk analytics team in India. He presents frequently at external conferences such as GARP, AFP, and RealOptions.org. He has published articles in Toronto's Globe and Mail, Forbes.com, The Conference Board's Director Notes, the China Daily Business News, as well as the McKinsey Quarterly and McKinsey on Finance. Prior to joining McKinsey, Mr Pergler completed a PhD in mathematics at the University of Chicago.

Downloadable resources:
Slides
Walter W. Powell

Walter W. Powell, Professor of Education and Sociology, Organizational Behavior, Management Science and Engineering, and Communication, and Co-Director of the Center on Philanthropy and Civil Society

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Speaker bio

Walter W. Powell is Professor of Education and Sociology, Organizational Behavior, Management Science and Engineering, and Communication, and Co-Director of the Center on Philanthropy and Civil Society. He has been a member of the board of directors of the Social Science Research Council since 2000, and an external faculty member at the Santa Fe Institute since 1999. He is interested in the processes through which knowledge is transferred across organisations, and the role of networks in facilitating or hindering innovation, and of institutions in codifying ideas. His current work focuses on the emergence of novel organisational forms. His latest book, The Emergence of Organizations and Markets, co-authored with John Padgett, was published by Princeton University Press in late 2012.

His 1990 article, "Neither Market Nor Hierarchy: Network Forms of Organization," won the 1991 Max Weber prize for best paper in the field of organizations; and "Network Dynamics and Field Evolution: The Growth of Inter-Organizational Collaboration," with D. White, K. Koput, and J. Owen-Smith (2005), received the 2007 Zelizer prize for best paper in economic sociology. "Technological Change and the Locus of Innovation: Networks of Learning in Biotechnology," with K. Koput and L. Smith-Doerr (1996), was recognized by Administrative Science Quarterly as its most influential scholarly publication in 2002. His 1983 paper, "The Iron Cage Revisited: Institutional Isomorphism and Collective Rationality in Organizational Fields," with Paul DiMaggio, is the most cited article in the history of the American Sociological Review. Powell is the author or editor of The Culture and Commerce of Book Publishing, with Lewis Coser and Charles Kadushin (Basic Books, 1982), The New Institutionalism in Organizational Analysis, with Paul DiMaggio (U. of Chicago Press, 1991), Private Action and the Public Good, with Elisabeth Clemens (Yale U. Press, 1997), and The Nonprofit Sector, with Richard Steinberg (Yale U. Press, 2006).

He received his PhD in Sociology from SUNY - Stony Brook in 1978, and previously taught at Yale, MIT, and the University of Arizona. He has received honorary degrees from Uppsala University, Copenhagen Business School, and the Helsinki School of Economics, and is a foreign member of the Swedish Royal Academy of Science.

Louise Pryor

Louise Pryor, Researcher, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

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Speaker bio

Louise Pryor is a Risk Researcher at the Centre for Risk Studies. Louise Pryor's career has covered software, financial modelling, academia and financial regulation in a variety of roles. She has worked in the insurance industry as an actuary and software risk consultant, specialising in risk management, modelling and systems and controls. More recently she was Director, Actuarial Standards at the Financial Reporting Council, where she led the development of technical Actuarial Standards and was a member of the Board for Actuarial Standards. She is also an experienced software developer and development manager, and has a PhD in Computer Science. The common theme throughout her work is risk and uncertainty. She has been involved in the management of risk at all levels: operationally, in project management; conceptually, reasoning about and modelling risks in workflow management and financial services; and strategically, considering the pros and cons of policy initiatives.

Danny Ralph

Danny Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge Judge Business School & Professor of Operations Research

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Speaker bio

Danny Ralph is a Founder and Director of the Centre for Risk Studies, Professor of Operations Research at Cambridge Judge Business School, and a Fellow of Churchill College. Danny received his PhD in 1990 from the University of Wisconsin Madison. He was a faculty member of the Mathematics & Statistics Department at the University of Melbourne before coming to Cambridge University for a joint appointment in the Engineering Department and Cambridge Judge Business School. Danny's research interests include optimisation methods, equilibrium models for electricity markets, and risk in business decision making. He is Editor-in-Chief of Mathematical Programming (Series B).

Simon Ruffle

Simon Ruffle, Director of Technology Research, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

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Speaker bio

Simon Ruffle is Director of Technology at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies and researches and consults on computational methods for the assessment, management and representation of risk. Simon's main activity in the Centre focusses on the Cambridge Risk Framework where he is developing an open source technology architecture to support research into how complex global socio economic networks behave under extreme systemic macro shock conditions. His current research tracks are in the area of threat taxonomy, cyber risk, supply chain resilience and financial catastrophe.

Michael H. Salama

Michael H. Salama, Vice President, Corporate Tax & Lead Tax Counsel, The Walt Disney Company

Speaker bio

Michael H. Salama. Vice President & Lead Tax Counsel, The Walt Disney Company. Michael's concentrations are in the areas of tax accounting, forecasting, planning, and tax controversy.

Select Publications: Bloomberg-BNA Portfolio 599-2nd, Film & TV Production: Tax Accounting Considerations and Federal Tax Incentives; Bloomberg-BNA, Managing Uncertain Income Tax Matters Under FIN 48 (ASC 740-10) (in process); The Flaw of Averages in U.S. Corporate Income Taxes: An Evaluation from the Taxpayer's Perspective, 30 VA. Tax Review XXX (2011), and other journal pieces.

Representative Organisational Involvement: Bloomberg-BNA Tax Management U.S. Income Advisory Board, Board Member, ProbabilityManagement.org, and Georgetown University State & Local Tax Institute Advisory Board. Education: B.S. (Mathematics), Vassar College (Ford Foundation Scholar); J.D. George Washington University (with honors); E.M.B.A. (Director's Award) Cambridge University.

Sam L. Savage

Sam L. Savage, Consulting Professor, Stanford University and Executive Director, ProbabilityManagement.org

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Speaker bio

Sam L. Savage. Executive Director: ProbabilityManagement.org, Consulting Professor: Stanford University, Fellow: Cambridge Judge Business School. Sam received a Ph.D. in the area of computational complexity from Yale University in 1973. In 1974 he joined the Management Science faculty of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. In 1985, he collaborated on the first widely marketed spreadsheet optimization package, What'sBest!®‚ which won PC Magazine's Technical Excellence Award. In 1990 Sam came to Stanford as a Consulting Professor of Management Science and Engineering where he published his Management Science text book with spreadsheet based analytical tools, Decision Making with Insight in 1998.

In 2009 John Wiley & Sons published his book, The Flaw of Averages: Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty.

In 2012 Sam incorporated ProbabilityManagement.org as a non-profit, with the mission to promote standards for communicating and calculating uncertainties. Sam is joined on the board by Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Michael Salama, Vice President & Lead Tax Counsel, of Walt Disney.

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Slides
Charles Scawthorn

Charles Scawthorn, Principal, SPA Risk LLC and former Professor of Kyoto University

Speaker bio

Charles Scawthorn is internationally recognized as an authority for the analysis and mitigation of natural and technological hazards. He retired in 2008 as Professor and head of the Earthquake Disaster Prevention Systems Laboratory, Kyoto University (Japan), is currently Visiting Professor at Beijing Normal University and Waseda University (Tokyo) and Visiting Researcher, Univ. California at Berkeley. He teaches a course on Disaster Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Financing at the World Bank, and chairs the HAZUS Open Source Committee, is a member of the Multihazard Mitigation Council. As President of SPA Risk LLC, he consults to the global insurance industry, the World Bank, local/state/federal agencies and Global 1000 corporations.

From 1998 to 2003 he led technical development of the US national Flood Loss Estimation Model (HAZUS) for FEMA, and is widely recognized for the development of methods for rapid risk analysis of buildings (FEMA 154), seismic vulnerability assessment of US national infrastructure (FEMA 224), stochastic models of fires following earthquakes, models for optimizing urban land use with respect to natural hazards risk, general loss estimation models for earthquake, wind and flood, and seismically reinforcing low-strength masonry buildings. He is the author or co-editor of a number of books and technical papers on earthquake engineering, fire following earthquake, catastrophe risk and human casualties. Dr Scawthorn is a graduate of the Cooper Union, holds an MSCE degree from Lehigh University and received his DEng from Kyoto University.

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Slides
Haresh Shah

Haresh Shah, Chairman of ARC, Advisory Board, ICRM & Emeritus Professor, Stanford University

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Speaker bio

Haresh Shah is the Chairman of the Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & Emeritus Obayashi Professor of Engineering at Stanford University. Haresh is currently the Chairman of the World Seismic Safety Initiative. He was a founder and Senior Advisor to RMS. He has served Stanford University in many capacities, including chairman of the Department of Civil Engineering and Founding Director of the John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center. Haresh was awarded "The Top Earthquake Engineer of the 20th Century" given by the ATC and the Engineering News Record of USA. Haresh Shah is the author of one book, has contributed to chapters in many books and has been an author or co-author of more than 350 technical papers and reports. He has been a consultant to private organizations and to local, state, and national government agencies. Professor Shah is currently the Chairman of the World Seismic Safety Initiative.

Alan Smith

Alan Smith, Global Head of Risk Strategy and Chief of Staff, Global Risk, HSBC

Speaker bio

Alan Smith is Chief of Staff and Global Head of Risk Strategy within the Global Risk function at HSBC where he is responsible for overseeing the Risk Appetite, Risk Governance, Risk Measurement, Scenario Stress Testing and Pension Risk infrastructures for the Group, leading a global team of 300 staff. Alan is a member of the Global Risk Management Board which oversees the running of the Risk function of 30,000 plus people across the globe. Alan has worked with HSBC for 17 years in a variety of senior finance, risk and capital management roles in the Group Management Office, in London and the Middle East. Prior to his current role, Alan was Group Head of Economic Capital from 2005 to 2007, and before that Head of Global Finance for HSBC's Corporate Investment Banking and Markets Division, where he was a member of its ALM and Operational Risk Management Committees. Alan worked with KPMG London from 1987 to 1994, latterly within its Financial Sector Advisory practice, advising global financial institutions on capital, risk and accounting. Alan started his career with PwC in Barbados.

Alan is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales and has an MBA in Finance from Cass Business School, City University in London which he attended as a Commonwealth Scholarship winner. He completed his undergraduate degree at the University of the West Indies in Jamaica.

Outside of work, Alan has a keen interest in cricket, (representing Barbados at the Junior National level), theatre and travel. He is also actively involved in a number of faith based charities which focus on social engagement and development, and is an advisor to the boards of trustees of a range of charities.

David Spiegelhalter

David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge

Speaker bio

David Spiegelhalter, FRS OBE, is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge, which he combines with being a Senior Scientist in the MRC Biostatistics Unit. His background is in medical statistics, particularly the use of Bayesian methods in clinical trials, health technology assessment and drug safety. He led the statistical team in the Bristol Royal Infirmary Inquiry and also gave evidence to the Shipman Inquiry. He has been a consultant to a number of public and private organizations including pharmaceutical companies. In his new post, he is attempting to improve the way quantitative aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed in society.

Gillian Tett

Gillian Tett, Markets and Finance Commentator & Assistant Editor, Financial Times

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Speaker bio

Gillian Tett is markets and finance commentator and an assistant editor of the Financial Times. In her previous roles, she was US managing editor and oversaw global coverage of the financial markets. In March 2009 she was Journalist of the Year at the British Press Awards. In June 2009 her book Fool's Gold won Financial Book of the Year at the inaugural Spear's Book Awards. In 2007 she was awarded the Wincott prize, the premier British award for financial journalism, for her capital markets coverage. She was British Business Journalist of the Year in 2008. She joined the FT in 1993 and worked in the former Soviet Union and Europe, and in the economics team. In 1997 she was posted to Tokyo where she became the bureau chief, before returning in 2003 to become deputy head of the Lex column.

Michelle Tuveson

Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

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Speaker bio

Michelle Tuveson is a Founder and Executive Director at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies hosted at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School. Her responsibilities include the overall executive leadership at the Centre. This includes developing partnership relationships with corporations, governments, and other academic centres. She chairs the organising committee for the Cambridge Risk Centre's Annual Risk Conferences. She is one of the lead organisers of the Aspen Crisis and Risk Forum. She is an advisor to a number of corporations and boards as well as a frequent conference speaker.

Ms Tuveson has worked in corporations within the technology sector for the majority of her career, with her most recent position in the Emerging Markets Group at Lockheed Martin. Prior to that, she held positions with management strategy firm Booz Allen & Hamilton, and U.S. R&D organisation MITRE Corporation. She is involved in risk governance research associated with the role of the Chief Risk Officer and hosts roundtable topic discussions. She was awarded by the Career Communications Group, Inc. as a Technology Star for Women in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM). She has degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Johns Hopkins University, and University of Cambridge (exp in 2013). She is a member of Christ's College Cambridge.

Peter Ulrich

Peter Ulrich, Senior Vice President, RMS

Speaker bio

Peter Ulrich, Senior Vice President RMS. Peter has been with RMS 20 years and currently co-manages RMS' LifeRisks business unit. The LifeRisks team provides solutions for the Life Insurance industry and pension funds to quantify, hedge and transfer longevity and excess mortality risk and to respond to Solvency II requirements. He has advised clients on the management of terrorism risk in the US and internationally.

Prior to joining RMS, Mr. Ulrich spent 8 years with Peterson Consulting. Mr. Ulrich earned a B.S. in Accounting and Finance from the University of California at Berkeley, and an MBA from the University of Southern California.

Geir Westgaard

Geir Westgaard, Head of Political Risk and Head of Security Threat Assessment Centre, Statoil

Speaker bio

Geir Westgaard is Vice President of Political Analysis at Statoil. Geir joined Statoil in the late 1990s, working for Statoil Energy, a natural gas marketing and trading subsidiary in the U.S. He has also been head of Country Analysis and Social Responsibility and Statoil's EU Affairs Office in Brussels. A former diplomat, Geir has been stationed in Moscow, Vilnius and Washington, DC, and worked as an adviser to both the prime minister and the foreign minister of Norway. He has also been head of strategy for BSR, a U.S. based think tank and consultancy specializing in issues of corporate responsibility/sustainability.

Geir holds a Bachelor's degree from the University of Oslo and a Master's degree in international affairs and Soviet/Russian studies from Columbia University. He has also done an extended fellowship at Harvard University, care of Norway's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Gordon Woo

Gordon Woo, Catastrophist, RMS

Speaker bio

Gordon Woo is a catastrophist at RMS, specializing in mathematical modelling of extreme risks. He has written widely on the risk analysis of both natural and man-made hazards. His latest book, Calculating Catastrophe, published by Imperial College Press, has been highly praised by the UK government chief scientist, and has been translated into Italian as 'Scienze e Coscienze della Catastrofi'. Top mathematics graduate of Cambridge University, he completed his PhD in theoretical physics at MIT as a Kennedy Scholar, and was a member of the Harvard Society of Fellows. He is currently an adjunct professor at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Downloadable resources:
Slides

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Meeting Programme & Agenda

Cambridge Risk Centre Special Topic Seminars: Monday 17 June 2013
CJBS Room W2.02
13:00-14:00 From Risk Management to Resilience in Coping with Natural Catastrophes in Asia - the Vietnam Case
Roman Hohl, CEO Asia Risk Centre and Deputy Director, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management (ICRM), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore
14:00-15:15 Risk Analytics Workshop with ProbabilityManagement.org
Michael Salama, Vice President, Corporate Tax & Lead Tax Counsel, The Walt Disney Company.
Sam Savage, Consulting Professor, Stanford University and Executive Director, ProbabilityManagement.org
15:16-16:30 Cambridge Risk Framework: Innovations in Risk Modelling
Gary Bowman, Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
Andrew Coburn, Director of the External Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies and Senior Vice President, RMS
Simon Ruffle, Director of Technology Research, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
Cambridge Risk Summit Day 1: Monday 17 June 2013
CBJS LT1
16:30-17:00 Risk Summit Registration
17:00-18:30 Risk Summit Welcome
Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Session and Keynote Speaker Introduction
William Janeway, Senior Advisor, Warburg Pincus

Risk Summit Keynote: Risk and Resilience through a Network Lens
Speaker: Woody Powell, Professor of Sociology, Organizational Behavior, Management Science & Engineering, and Communication (by courtesy), Stanford University

Risk Summit Day 1 Panel: Seeking Value Creation in Risk: Innovation, Creativity, and Making the Right Bets
Moderated by: Chair: David Champion, Senior Editor, Harvard Business Review

Mark Davies, Head of Group Risk, Rio Tinto
Christoph Loch, Director, University of Cambridge Judge Business School & Professor of Management Studies
Woody Powell, Professor of Sociology, Organizational Behavior, Management Science and Engineering, and Communication (by courtesy), Stanford University
Alan Smith, Global Head of Risk Strategy and Chief of Staff, Global Risk, HSBC
18:30-19:15 Drinks Reception at CJBS
19:30-22:00 Risk Summit Dinner at Christ's College
Dinner Speaker:
David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge
Cambridge Risk Summit Day 2: Tuesday 18 June 2013
CBJS LT1
08:30-09:00 Risk Summit Registration & Coffee
09:00-09:00 Risk Summit Welcome and Introductions
Andrew Coburn, Director of the External Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies and Senior Vice President, RMS
09:00-11:00 Plenary Session 1: Risk Strategy and Value Of Risk (VOR)
09:00-09:30 Joining up the Dots; What Anthropologists Can Teach Risk Managers
Gillian Tett, Markets and Finance Commentator & Assistant Editor, Financial Times
09:30-10:00 The challenge of simulating and understanding systemic risk in financial markets
Doyne Farmer, Professor of Mathematics and Co-Director of Complexity Economics, Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
10:00-10:30 Value from risk through informed tradeoffs
Martin Pergler, Senior Risk Expert, McKinsey & Co
10:00-10:30 Risk Summit Day 2 Panel: "Against the Gods" - Exploring the Strategy Side of Risk
Panel Moderator: Gillian Tett, Markets and Finance Commentator & Assistant Editor, Financial Times
  • Doyne Farmer, Professor of Mathematics and Co-Director of Complexity Economics, Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
  • Andrew Freeman, Risk Fellow, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Managing Director, Cambridge Research Associates Ltd
  • Ashley Hirst, Head of Science, Global Distribution and EMEA at AIG
  • Martin Pergler, Senior Risk Expert, McKinsey & Co
11:00-11:30 Coffee break
11:30-13:00 Plenary Session 2: The Upside of Risk
Chair: Sven Heiligtag, Principal, McKinsey & Company
Are Risk Analysts Too Reward-Averse?
Gordon Woo, Catastrophist, RMS
Risk Pricing Mechanisms: Reconciling Science, Risk, and Opportunities
Mike Maran, Chief Science Officer, Catlin Insurance
Phoenix from the Flames: Reinvigoration through Catastrophe
Charles Scawthorn, Principal, SPA Risk LLC and former Professor of Kyoto University
Influence of International Clusters to Global Economic Development
Haresh Shah, Chairman of ARC, Advisory Board, ICRM & Emeritus Professor, Stanford University
13:00-14:00 Lunch at University Arms Hotel
14:00-15:30 Plenary Session 3: Risk as an Evolutionary Force
Chair: Peter Ulrich, Senior Vice President, RMS
Survival of the Reckless: Risk, Structure, and the Law of Unanticipated Consequences
Michael Jacobides, Sir Donald Gordon Chair of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Strategy & Entrepreneurship Department, London Business School
Biological Perspective of Resilience
Gerard Evan, Head of Department and Professor, Department of Biochemistry, University of Cambridge
Financial Innovations, Market Crises, and Institutional Changes: Causes or Consequences?
D'Maris Coffman, College Lecturer, Newnham College and Director, Centre for Financial History
15:30-16:00 Coffee Break
16:00-17:00 Plenary Session 4: Crisis as Opportunity
Chair: Andrew Palmer, Finance Editor, The Economist
Why are Poor Countries Poor and Rich Countries Rich?
Tiago Cavalcanti, Senior Lecturer, University of Cambridge Department of Economics

Risk Summit Day 2 Panel: Emerging Opportunities in the Midst of Crises
Panel Moderator: Andrew Palmer, Finance Editor, The Economist
  • William Dick, Consultant, World Bank and Consultant & UN World Food Programme
  • Tso-Chien Pan, Professor and Executive Director, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management (ICRM), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore
  • Will Pearson, Director, Eurasia Group's Global Energy and Natural Resources
  • Geir Westgaard, Head of Political Risk and Head of Security Threat Assessment Centre, Statoil
17:00-17:15 Summit Closing Remarks
Danny Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge Judge Business School & Professor of Operations Research
17:30-18:30 Drinks Reception
Cambridge-McKinsey Risk Prize Award Announcement

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