Centre for Risk Studies

3rd Risk Summit

Anticipating the Future: Risk Management for Long-term Planning

7-8 December 2011
 

Photo Gallery

3rd Risk Summit - Anticipating the Future

Anticipating the Future

Photos from the 3rd Risk Summit, held at Cambridge Judge Business School on 7-8 December 2011, are available via Flickr.

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Meeting Partners

HSBC BP Lockheed Martin
Deloitte RMS Columbia Business School Nanyang Technological University

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Speakers & Presentations

Introduction

Professor Danny Ralph

Professor Danny Ralph Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Professor of Operations Research, Cambridge Judge Business School

Introduction to 3rd Risk Summit

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Speaker bio

Professor Danny Ralph is a Founder and Director of the Centre for Risk Studies, Professor of Operations Research at Cambridge Judge Business School, and a Fellow of Churchill College. Danny received his PhD in 1990 from the University of Wisconsin Madison. He was a faculty member of the Mathematics & Statistics Department at the University of Melbourne before coming to Cambridge University for a joint appointment in the Engineering Department and Cambridge Judge Business School. Danny's research interests include optimisation methods, equilibrium models for electricity markets, and risk in business decision making. He is Editor-in-Chief of Mathematical Programming (Series B).

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Plenary Session 1: Unsustainability

Plenary Session Chair: Professor Peter Guthrie, Professor of Engineering for Sustainable Development, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering

Dr Robert Muir-Wood

Dr Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, Risk Management Solutions

The Future of Risk

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Speaker bio

Dr Robert Muir-Wood is Chief Research Officer at Risk Management Solutions, which develops risk models for a wide range of catastrophe and life risks for the global insurance industry, employing 1000 people in offices in US, Europe and Asia. After a degree in Natural Sciences and a PhD in Earth Sciences at Cambridge he was a Junior Research Fellow at Trinity Hall. He has more than 20 years experience in excavating historical and scientific information on catastrophe hazards and developing probabilistic catastrophe models for earthquake, tropical cyclone, windstorm and floods.

Robert was the founding editor of the Earth Sciences journal Terra Nova and author of the 'The Dark Side of the Earth: the Battle for the Earth Sciences, 1800-1980' and three books teaching prehistory to children. He has published scientific papers on a wide range of topics related to catastrophe perils. He was Lead Author on Insurance, Finance and Climate Change for the 2007 4th IPCC Assessment Report and also Lead Author for the just released November 2011 IPCC Special Report on Extremes. He is Vice Chair of the OECD High Level Advisory Board of the International Network on Financial Management of Large Catastrophes working with Government Finance Ministers on the improved management of catastrophe risks.

Downloadable resources:
Slides
André Abadie

André Abadie, Managing Director, Global Environmental & Social Risk Management, JP Morgan

Environmental and Social Risks in Finance: The Equator Principles and Emerging Good Practices

Speaker bio

André Abadie is Managing Director and Head of Environmental and Social Risk Management at J.P.Morgan in London, where he guides the assessment of environmental and social issues associated with a broad range of banking transactions. André was previously Director at Sustainable Finance Ltd., focusing on the delivery of environmental and social risk management services to the financial sector. Prior to joining Sustainable Finance, André was head of Sustainable Business Advisory within ABN AMRO Bank's risk management division in Amsterdam, where he co-authored the Equator Principles and led the implementation efforts within ABN AMRO.

André recently chaired the Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Forum, a multi-stakeholder initiative of the International Hydropower Association, which proposed revisions to the industry's sustainability protocol. André holds a Masters Degree in Business Administration, a Masters Degree in Corporate Law, and an Advanced Diploma in Sustainability.

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Slides

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Plenary Session 2: Speculations on the Future - Geo-Political Change

Plenary Session Chair: Dr David Reiner, Senior Lecturer, University of Cambridge Judge Business School

Professor Brendan Simms

Professor Brendan Simms, Professor in the History of European International Relations, University of Cambridge, Department of Politics and International Studies

The Rise of China in Historical Perspective

Speaker bio

Professor Brendan Simms is the Professor in the History of International Relations at the University of Cambridge. As Newton-Sheehy Teaching Fellow, Brendan Simms lectures for the option "International History since 1945" and leads seminar groups on the same subject. He also lectures to the Faculty of History on geopolitics and the primacy of foreign policy, and conducts the Themes and Sources seminar on "Revolutions in Foreign Policy". He supervises MPhil and PhD theses for both the Centre and the Faculty of History, which deal primarily with Central European history during the Napoleonic period, Anglo-German relations after Unification, and with the recent conflicts in Bosnia and Kosovo.

His current research projects are an edited volume on The Primacy of Foreign Policy in German History and New Worlds and Old Balances, a study of British foreign policy in the 18th Century, focussing on Britain's global strategic management of its commitments in Europe and overseas. He has written numerous articles and reviews for the Times Higher Educational Supplement, Observer, Sunday Times, Sunday Telegraph, Spectator, The times, Independent, Evening Standard, London Review of Books, and Wall Street Journal.

Professor Paul Berkman

Professor Paul Berkman, Fulbright Distinguished Scholar & Research Professor, University of California, Santa Barbara

Arctic Geopolitics: How Do Nations Balance National and Common Interests?

Speaker bio

Professor Paul Arthur Berkman is a Research Professor in the Donald Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at the University of California Santa Barbara and former Head of the Arctic Ocean Geopolitics Programme through the Scott Polar Research Institute and Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge. He also serves as an expert consultant to the European Space Agency. He is an interdisciplinary oceanographer establishing connections between science, policy and information technology to promote cooperation and prevent discord for good governance of the Arctic Ocean, Antarctica and international spaces more generally. Among his books are: Science Diplomacy: Antarctica, Science and the Governance of International Spaces (Berkman et al., Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, 2011); Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean: Promoting Cooperation and Preventing Conflict (Berkman, Routledge, 2010); and Science into Policy: Global Lessons from Antarctica (Berkman, Academic Press, 2002).

He has received the: Antarctic Service Medal from the United States Congress; NASA Faculty Fellowship at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Byrd Fellowship at Ohio State University; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Fellowship at the National Institute of Polar Research in Japan; Erskine Fellowship in the Gateway Antarctica, University of Canterbury in New Zealand; and Fulbright Distinguished Scholarship at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom. He has a master's degree and doctorate in biological oceanography from the University of Rhode Island, where he was a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellow. In 2011, was elected to the Norwegian Scientific Academy for Polar Research.

Downloadable resources:
Slides

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Panel Discussion 1

Geo-political Change: Dialogue on Globalization, Sovereignty, and Balance

Moderated by Andrew Freeman, Independent Risk Advisor & Author

Panel member bio

Andrew FreemanAndrew Freeman is an Independent Risk Advisor and Author. He was formerly the Executive Director of the Center for Financial Services at Deloitte Services LLP and was responsible for the development of the Center's research platforms and key activities. Andrew's focus is on building relationships with strategic clients and leading the development of a firm's intellectual capital on financial services industry issues. Before joining Deloitte, Andrew was a Senior Knowledge Expert in Risk at McKinsey & Company. Prior to that, Andrew was an award winning financial journalist for more than two decades at The Economist and the Financial Times. He has authored several books and journal articles on Risk Management. He is a graduate of Balliol College, Oxford.

  • Crispin Hawes, Director, Middle East and North Africa, Eurasia Group

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    Panel member bio

    Crispin HawesCrispin Hawes is the head of Eurasia Group's Middle East and North Africa practice. His central focus is the politics of the Persian Gulf, particularly Iraq and Saudi Arabia, as well as hydrocarbons and Islamist politics across the region. In over 20 years of providing political analysis on the Middle East and North Africa, Crispin has worked with clients across sectors on a wide range of topics. In addition to Gulf politics, he has conducted in-country research on issues ranging from post-civil war Shia politics in southern Lebanon to pipeline risks in eastern Iran, the growth of support for Hamas in the West Bank, gas policy in Libya and energy investment in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq.

    In addition to a previous three-year stint as the leader of Eurasia Group's Middle East and Africa practice group, Crispin worked as a Middle East analyst at Control Risks Group and was a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Most recently, he was a partner and head of Middle East and North Africa research at Horizon, a boutique consultancy specializing in advisory services to the oil and gas industry. Crispin also worked as an economist and equities analyst at Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia covering the EMEA region from London and Istanbul. A double graduate of the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, Crispin has a bachelor's degree in Arabic and Swahili and a master's degree in Middle East studies, focusing on Islamist politics, Islamic law and Middle Eastern economic development.

  • Derek Leatherdale, Head of Geo-political Risk, HSBC

    Panel member bio

    Derek LeatherdaleDerek Leatherdale is Head of Geo-political Risk at HSBC. He joined HSBC in early 2007 after a spell in public service. His role now involves providing political risk advice to inform HSBC decision-making across a range of issues and in parts of the world where the bank is exposed to downside political risk.

  • Professor Jaideep Prabhu, Jawaharlal Nehru Professor of Indian Business & Enterprise , University of Cambridge Judge Business School

    Panel member bio

    Professor Jaideep PrabhuProfessor Jaideep Prabhu is Jawaharlal Nehru Professor of Indian Business and Enterprise and Director of the Centre for India & Global Business at Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. He has held positions at Imperial College London, Tilburg University (the Netherlands) and UCLA. He has a BTech degree from IIT Delhi, and a PhD from the University of Southern California. His research interests are in marketing, innovation, strategy and international business. His current research is mainly on the globalization of innovation, and the role of emerging economies in this process. Jaideep Prabhu is a member of the editorial boards of the Journal of Marketing, the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the International Journal of Research in Marketing Science and the Journal of Management Studies, and a member of the senior advisory board of the European Journal of Marketing.

  • Professor Brendan Simms, Professor in the History of European International Relations, University of Cambridge, Department of Politics and International Studies

    Panel member bio

    Professor Brendan SimmsProfessor Brendan Simms is the Professor in the History of International Relations at the University of Cambridge. As Newton-Sheehy Teaching Fellow, Brendan Simms lectures for the option "International History since 1945" and leads seminar groups on the same subject. He also lectures to the Faculty of History on geopolitics and the primacy of foreign policy, and conducts the Themes and Sources seminar on "Revolutions in Foreign Policy". He supervises MPhil and PhD theses for both the Centre and the Faculty of History, which deal primarily with Central European history during the Napoleonic period, Anglo-German relations after Unification, and with the recent conflicts in Bosnia and Kosovo.

    His current research projects are an edited volume on The Primacy of Foreign Policy in German History and New Worlds and Old Balances, a study of British foreign policy in the 18th Century, focussing on Britain's global strategic management of its commitments in Europe and overseas. He has written numerous articles and reviews for the Times Higher Educational Supplement, Observer, Sunday Times, Sunday Telegraph, Spectator, The times, Independent, Evening Standard, London Review of Books, and Wall Street Journal.

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Plenary Session 3: Future-proof Decisions and Recommendations

Plenary Session Chair: Dr Emily So, Lecturer, University of Cambridge, Department of Architecture & Director, CURBE
Professor Haresh Shah, Chairman of Advisory Board, Institute for Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University

Alexander Naumov

Alexander Naumov, BP, Group Economics

The Energy Outlook to 2030: Global Trends and What Can Bend Them?

Speaker bio

Dr Alexander Naumov, is a macro economist at BP Group Economics Team, BP plc. His responsibilities include analysis of global macroeconomic trends, short- and long-term market forecasts and compilation and analysis of energy and macroeconomic data for the BP Statistical Review of World Energy and the BP Energy Outlook 2030. Before joining BP he worked in academic research and in economic and energy consulting. Alexander holds a Master's degree in Economics from Edinburgh University and a doctorate in Economics from Heriot-Watt University (Edinburgh).

Downloadable resources:
Slides
Dr Peter McCormack

Dr Peter McCormack, Senior Risk Specialist - Risk Frameworks and Governance, Risk Specialist Division, Financial Services Authority

Operational Risk, Scenario Analysis, and External Events: A Regulatory Perspective

Speaker bio

Dr Peter McCormack, Senior Risk Specialist - Risk Frameworks and Governance, Risk Specialist Division , Financial Services Authority. My interests are in all aspects of governance, risk and compliance and, in particular the role of senior management in creating the right culture, values and behaviours in their organisation. I am also interested in the corporate structure (board and board committees and executive and executive committees), and how it supports the execution of strategy (as agreed by the board) and the management of risk to strategy (in line with the risk appetite agreed by the board), and in particular the role of the Chief Risk Officer in providing risk leadership, and improving business performance. In support of this continuing interest I have developed a career that combines a thorough understanding (through relevant study) with in-depth practical experience.

I have worked in financial services since 1981 and in addition to retail banking and investment management firms (Standard Bank, Barclays, Kleinwort Benson Investment Management, Abbey, and Lloyds TSB). I have also worked for the professional services firms Norton Rose, Simmons & Simmons, and Ernst & Young. In the regulatory field I have worked at the European Commission, the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, and the FSA. Over the past ten years I have been involved in the design, implementation and/or review of over seventy-five risk management frameworks and been involved in over twenty-five governance / board effectiveness reviews.

Downloadable resources:
Slides
Dr Ned Allen

Dr Ned Allen, Senior Fellow & Chief Scientist, Lockheed Martin, Aeronautics

Measuring and Mitigating Operational Risks in Engineered Cyber-physical Systems

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Speaker bio

Dr Ned Allen is Senior Fellow & Chief Scientist at Lockheed Martin, Aeronautics. He advises Lockheed Martin's Corporate Engineering and Technology unit in Bethesda MD on advanced technologies and their associated business opportunities. He also established and runs LM's program on verification and validation of complex systems integrations.

He was educated at the University of Chicago (physics), Stanford University (physics), Swarthmore College (mathematics and literature), and the University of Pennsylvania (applied mathematics and international relations). After a decade on the tenured faculty of Utah State University and two years as a Rockefeller Foundation Fellow, he founded and ran his own commuter airline (now Horizon Air) and then his own aeronautical R&D firm, Daedalus Research Inc. In 1998, he merged his firm's key assets into LM's Skunk Works in Palmdale CA. He became their Chief Scientist in 2002 and was named a Corporate Senior Fellow in Systems Engineering in 2007. In addition to working Fellows' assignments across the LM Corporation, he is co-principle investigator on projects in three areas: 1) energy and power technology; 2) quantum information technology; and 3) plasma devices for aircraft operating in near space.

Downloadable resources:
Slides
Katharine Thoday

Katharine Thoday, Programme Manager, Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership

A Debrief: Key Developments on Climate for Corporates in 2011

Speaker bio

Katharine Thoday is Programme Manager at Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership. Katharine supports collaborative working amongst the ClimateWise group of insurance companies, including on adaptation to the impacts of climate change, sustainable investment opportunities, and reducing the environmental impact of insurance claims. Katharine has spent the majority of her career working on sustainability issues for the UK Government. Most recently she was an advisor on international climate finance and governance for the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). She has also worked for the Department for International Development and the Department for Environment and Rural Affairs and has particular knowledge of incentivising sustainable land use and forestry management. Katharine is a social and political scientist with a Masters in International Natural Resource Management.

Dr Emily Shuckburgh

Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Programme Manager, Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership

Future Climate Change: Perspectives from the Polar Regions and Impacts to Global Policy

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Speaker bio

Dr Emily Shuckburgh leads the Open Oceans research group at the British Antarctic Survey, which is focused on understanding the role of the polar oceans in the global climate system. She is also a fellow of Darwin College, Cambridge. She is a climate scientist who has worked at Ecole Normal Superieure in Paris and at MIT, as well as at the University of Cambridge. Her personal research concerns atmosphere and ocean dynamics and she is currently focusing her efforts on understanding the circulation of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. At the University of Cambridge she lectures a course on climate change in the Dept of Earth Sciences and is a faculty member of the Climate Leadership Programme. At present she is undertaking a part-time secondment to the UK Government's Department of Energy and Climate Change. She is a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and presently chair of their scientific publications committee.

Downloadable resources:
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Panel Discussion 2 and Open Forum

Profiles of the Future and Emerging Risks

Moderated by Mark Gilbert, London Bureau Chief, Bloomberg News

Panel member bio

Mark GilbertMark Gilbert is London Bureau Chief and a columnist on global capital markets for Bloomberg News, and has been with the company since 1991. Mark was born in Liverpool and graduated from Kings College, Cambridge in 1989 with a BA Hons in Philosophy. He was nominated as a finalist in the Commentary category of the U.K. 2006 Business Journalist of the Year awards, and holds a Malcolm Forbes Award for Best Business Story from the Overseas Press Club of America. Mark is the author of 'Complicit: How Greed and Collusion Made the Credit Crisis Unstoppable.'

  • Rowan Douglas, CEO,Willis Global Analytics & Chairman,Willis Research Network

    Panel member bio

    Rowan DouglasRowan Douglas, is the CEO of Global Analytics, Willis Re and Chairman of the Willis Research Network. Mr. Douglas has degrees in Geography from Durham and Bristol Universities. He has since held a number of senior positions with the organisation including head of e-business and executive director, Willis Capital Markets. In 2005, whilst in his current post with Willis Analytics, Mr Douglas founded the Willis Research Network, which has become the world's largest collaboration between academia and the insurance industry, supporting university research in Europe, North America and across Asia pacific. TheWRN undertakes research to evaluate the frequency, severity and impact of natural catastrophes, and develop private and public sector risk financing to share the costs of these extreme events across populations.

  • Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Head of the Open Oceans Research Group, British Antarctic Survey & UK Department of Energy

    Panel member bio

    Dr Emily ShuckburghDr Emily Shuckburgh leads the Open Oceans research group at the British Antarctic Survey, which is focused on understanding the role of the polar oceans in the global climate system. She is also a fellow of Darwin College, Cambridge. She is a climate scientist who has worked at Ecole Normal Superieure in Paris and at MIT, as well as at the University of Cambridge. Her personal research concerns atmosphere and ocean dynamics and she is currently focusing her efforts on understanding the circulation of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. At the University of Cambridge she lectures a course on climate change in the Dept of Earth Sciences and is a faculty member of the Climate Leadership Programme. At present she is undertaking a part-time secondment to the UK Government's Department of Energy and Climate Change. She is a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and presently chair of their scientific publications committee.

  • Philip Brice, Corporate Risk Manager, BP Treasury

    Panel member bio

    Philip BricePhilip Brice is the Corporate Risk Manager within BP Treasury. His responsibilities include the management of FX risks across the group, and forecasting the impact that market volatility and other events could have on the cashflows of the business. He was previously the Manager of Equity Capital Markets. Prior to that he spent over 20 years in engineering, R&D and management across all segments of the company. He holds an M.Sc. in Finance from London Business School and an M.Eng. in Chemical Engineering from Cambridge University.

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  • Dr Miles Elsden, Head of Defence and Security, UK Government Office for Science

    Panel member bio

    Dr Miles ElsdenDr Miles Elsden is Head of Defence and Security at the Government Office for Science. Miles is the lead official supporting the Governments Chief Scientific Advisor (Sir John Beddington) on Civil Contingencies, Defence and Security; currently on secondment to GO-Science from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl). His work includes supporting the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) that provides advice to COBR, for example during the Icelandic Volcanic eruptions in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear incident in 2011. Dr Elsden support Sir John's role within the Government's counter terrorism strategy (CONTEST), Defence R&D, the Olympics and the National Cyber Security Programme. He also provides advice to the GCSA on science issues of concern to Ministers, the Prime Minister and Cabinet.

    Dr Elsden has a background in applied mathematics and computational fluid mechanics. He is a Chartered Mathematician, Chartered Scientist and Chartered IT Professional, a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications and a current Cambridge Science and Policy Fellow.

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  • Neil J Smith, Manager, Emerging Risks & Research Exposure Management, Performance Management, Lloyd's

    Panel member bio

    Neil J SmithNeil Smith is emerging risks and research manager within the exposure management team at Lloyd's. In this role Neil is responsible for identifying, monitoring and analysing emerging risks that may potentially impact the Lloyd's market. He is also responsible for preparing research reports on emerging risk topics, as well as on other insurance and risk-related topics. Neil has worked at Lloyd's since 2004 where he started in the communications department. He has a master's degree in Geography from the University of Cambridge.

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Day 2

Professor Danny Ralph

Professor Danny Ralph Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & Professor of Operations Research, Cambridge Judge Business School

Welcome and Introduction

Downloadable resources:

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Plenary Session 4: Imagining and Doing the "How"

Plenary Session Chair: Professor David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge

Grant Kopec

Grant Kopec, PhD Candidate, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering

A Debrief: The Foreseer Project - Linking Energy, Water and Land Resource Future

Speaker bio

Grant Kopec is a PhD Candidate at the University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering. Grant is focused on the integration of energy, water and land resource systems as well as regional energy flow aspects of the Foreseer project. In this role he has responsibility for uncertainty, data estimation, systems dynamics and the intersection of physical- and policy-aspects of the tool. Previously he worked to coordinate and manage multidisciplinary energy-related research initiatives within the University of Cambridge. Prior to coming to Cambridge, he worked in government and university on fuel cell design, nuclear chemistry, and security studies. Grant has earned his MPhil in Technology Policy from the University of Cambridge and his MS in Nuclear Engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Downloadable resources:
Slides
Professor Haresh Shah

Professor Haresh Shah, Chairman of Advisory Board, Institute for Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & Emeritus Professor of Stanford University

How Can the Risk of Global Food Supply/Demand Difference be Mitigated through Innovations in Crop Insurance?

Speaker bio

Professor Haresh Shah is the Chairman of the Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & Emeritus Obayashi Professor of Engineering at Stanford University. Haresh is currently the Chairman of the World Seismic Safety Initiative. He was a founder and Senior Advisor to RMS. He has served Stanford University in many capacities, including chairman of the Department of Civil Engineering and Founding Director of the John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center. Haresh was awarded "The Top Earthquake Engineer of the 20th Century" given by the ATC and the Engineering News Record of USA. Haresh Shah is the author of one book, has contributed to chapters in many books and has been an author or co-author of more than 350 technical papers and reports. He has been a consultant to private organizations and to local, state, and national government agencies. Prof. Shah is currently the Chairman of the World Seismic Safety Initiative.

Downloadable resources:
Slides
Nafiz Karabudak

Nafiz Karabudak, Senior Manager, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Technology Initiatives

Solar Flare Risks: Consequences on Satellites and Global Communications Systems

Speaker bio

Nafiz Karabudak is Senior Manager, Technology Initiatives for Lockheed Martin Corporate Engineering and Technology. In this position, he provides leadership for Corporation's R&D and SBIR Initiatives to identify strategic technologies and innovation partnerships within global S&T community including small businesses, universities, and government funded R&D institutions. Mr. Karabudak has a proven track record in strategic planning, program development, program management, engineering management, and global R&D management.

Mr. Karabudak holds a B.S. degree in Electrical Engineering and attended Pennsylvania State University for MS degree program in Electrical Engineering. He is a member of Worcester Polytechnic Institute Dean of Engineering advisory board and a member of Pennsylvania State University Center for Nanotechnology advisory board. Mr Karabudak is a Lockheed Martin Certified Principal Engineer and certified Green Belt. He is a member of IEEE, AFCEA, AIAA, AUVSI, and SPIE.

Dr Hugh Hunt

Dr Hugh Hunt, Senior Lecturer, University of Cambridge, Department of Engineering

Geo-engineering Technologies for Mitigating Climate Impacts

Speaker bio

Dr Hugh Hunt is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Engineering at Cambridge University, Fellow of Trinity College, Mechanical Engineering graduate of Melbourne University. Principal research interests are:

  • dynamics of high-altitude tethered balloons
  • detection of damage in large wind turbine gearboxes
  • vibration of turbocharger wheels
  • vibration from underground railways
  • dynamics of towers due to bell-ringing
  • gyroscopic devices for extracting energy from ocean waves
  • dambusters and the engineering behind the bouncing bomb

He is also actively involved in promoting science and engineering at schools.

Downloadable resources:
Slides
Dr Andrew Coburn Simon Ruffle

Dr Andrew Coburn, Senior Vice President, Risk Management Solutions & Director of External Advisory Board, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Simon Ruffle, Director of Technology, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies' Systemic Shock Framework

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Dr Andrew Coburn's bio

Dr Andrew Coburn is the Director of External Advisory Board at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. Andrew is Vice President of Catastrophe Research at Risk Management Solutions, the leading provider of catastrophe risk models to the insurance industry. Andrew has also provided research inputs into government policy, such as House of Congress legislation on terrorism risk management policy and urban planning for disaster mitigation in Mexico, Metro Manila, and Southern Italy.

Andrew is one of the leading contributors to the creation of the class of catastrophe models that over the past 20 years has come to be an accepted part both of business management in financial services and of public policy making for societal risk. He has extensive experience in developing models and using them for business decision support.

Simon Ruffle's bio

Simon Ruffle is Director of Technology at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. Simon focuses on methods for the computation of risk including cloud-based open source technologies, supply chain network modelling and visual representation of extreme global risk. His experience includes development of systems for geospatial risk pricing for primary insurance, catastrophe modelling for reinsurance, and analysis tools for placing catastrophe bonds in the capital markets.

He is technical lead for the GEM Consequences Database, which records the physical, economic and social impacts of some 50 recent natural catastrophes. GEM is a global collaborative effort that brings together science, organisations and individuals aimed at the establishment of uniform and open standards for calculating and communicating risk worldwide. Simon is a graduate of St Catharine's College, Cambridge.

Downloadable resources:
Slides

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Plenary Session 5: Risk Research Focus Group Discussions

Michelle Tuveson

Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Introduction to Risk Research Tracks & Focus Group Discussions

Speaker bio

Michelle Tuveson is a Founder and Executive Director of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. She has worked in the technology sector for the majority of her career, with her most recent position in the Emerging Markets Group at Lockheed Martin. Prior to that, she held positions with management strategy firm, Booz Allen & Hamilton and U.S. R&D organization, MITRE Corporation. Her research interests include machine learning applications for modelling risk measurements and credit ratings. She has been awarded by the Career Communications Group, Inc. as a Technology Star for Women in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM). She has degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology & Johns Hopkins University and is a member of Christ's College Cambridge.

Downloadable resources:

Track 1: Threat Assessment

What are the shocks we might expect over the next decade? Horizon scanning and identifying emerging risks for systemic shock scenarios.

  • Chair: Dr Dougal Goodman, Chief Executive, The Foundation for Science and Technology

    Bio

    Dr Dougal GoodmanDr Dougal Goodman FREng, is Chief Executive of The Foundation for Science and Technology, a charity which works between both Houses of Parliament, Whitehall, business and the research community to promote debate about policy issues that have a science, engineering, technology or medical element (www.foundation.org.uk). He is also non-executive Chairman of the Lighthill Risk Network, a consortium of insurance companies working to bridge the gap between the insurance market and the research community and does consulting work on strategy and risk for the marine insurance market. In recent years this has been for the International Group of the P&I Clubs who provide reinsurance for third party liability for 90% of the global commercial shipping fleet (www.igpandi.org). He is a former Deputy Director of the British Antarctic Survey and a general manager for BP where he worked as head of safety for the company, in the insurance department, as operations manager for the Magnus oil field and in strategy and planning.

    He has served on a wide range of committees including currently the Advisory Board of the Financial Services Knowledge Transfer Network and the Public Affairs Committee of The Royal Academy of Engineering. He is a Fellow of The Royal Academy of Engineering, the Royal Statistical Society, the Institute of Physics, the Institution of Civil Engineers and the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining. He is a visiting professor at University College London and the University of Cranfield.

  • Co-Chair: Dr Gary Bowman, Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

    Bio

    Dr Gary BowmanDr Gary Bowman is a Research Associate in the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge Judge Business School. Specialising in scenario planning, organisational sensemaking and strategy, Gary has taught at the Universities of Strathclyde and St Andrews, and has consulted for a variety of public and private sector institutions on scenario-based strategic planning. He holds an MA and PhD from the School of Management, University of St Andrews.

Track 2: Systemic Risk

Defining the "System" in macro-economic systemic risk, such as the international banking network, supply chains, and infrastructure systems.

  • Chair: Alan Smith, Chief of Staff and Global Head of Risk Strategy, HSBC

    Bio

    Alan SmithAlan Smith is Chief of Staff and Global Head of Risk Strategy within the Global Risk function at HSBC where he is responsible for overseeing the Risk Appetite, Risk Governance, Risk Measurement, Scenario Stress Testing and Pension Risk infrastructures for the Group, leading a global team of 300 staff. Alan is a member of the Global Risk Management Board which oversees the running of the Risk function of 30,000 plus people across the globe. Alan has worked with HSBC for 17 years in a variety of senior finance, risk and capital management roles in the Group Management Office, in London and the Middle East. Prior to his current role, Alan was Group Head of Economic Capital from 2005 to 2007, and before that Head of Global Finance for HSBC's Corporate Investment Banking and Markets Division, where he was a member of its ALM and Operational Risk Management Committees. Alan worked with KPMG London from 1987 to 1994, latterly within its Financial Sector Advisory practice, advising global financial institutions on capital, risk and accounting. Alan started his career with PwC in Barbados.

    Alan is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales and has an MBA in Finance from Cass Business School, City University in London which he attended as a Commonwealth Scholarship winner. He completed his undergraduate degree at the University of the West Indies in Jamaica.

    Outside of work, Alan has a keen interest in cricket, (representing Barbados at the Junior National level), theatre and travel. He is also actively involved in a number of faith based charities which focus on social engagement and development, and is an advisor to the boards of trustees of a range of charities.

  • Co-Chair: Adrian Leonard, PhD Candidate, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies & University of Cambridge Department of History

    Bio

    Adrian LeonardAdrian Leonard is a PhD candidate in the Faculty of History studying under Professor Martin Daunton, supported by the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies and the Centre for Financial History at Newnham College. Adrian's project for the Centre for Risk Studies will investigate and analyse the development of risk modelling, the systems used to calculate future financial liabilities arising from or affected by uncertain events. His main area of interest is marine insurance in Britain and the British Empire from the seventeenth to nineteenth centuries. He is currently exploring the efficacy of marine war insurance premiums and their contribution to reducing transactional frictions in British trade.

    On the side, Adrian is President (Emeritus) of the Cambridge University History Society (Clio), and Graduate Representative on the History Faculty Board. He completed his MPhil at Trinity Hall, immediately after completing his undergraduate degree in History at Hughes Hall, Cambridge. He is the recipient of a studentship from the Ellen Macarthur Fund for Economic History, and was awarded the Hughes Hall Scholarship in 2010. Before returning to higher education, he spent twenty years as a writer and editor in the financial services and insurance sectors.

Track 3: Using Scenarios

Using scenarios as stress tests in business decisions and policy-making. The applications and challenges of making scenario testing relevant to regulation and risk management.

  • Chair: Peter Nakada, Managing Director, Risk Management Solutions

    Bio

    Peter NakadaPeter Nakada is Managing Director of RMS Capital Markets Solutions . Peter's background has focused on how to bring risk quantification, technology, and management science together to help financial institutions make better risk return decisions. Previously, Peter was a co-founder of ERisk, a firm that provided risk and capital management software and consulting to the banking industry. Before that, he was a partner in Oliver, Wyman & Company's Risk Management practice. Peter has a BA in Engineering Sciences from Harvard College, an MS in Engineering Management from Stanford University, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder.

  • Co-Chair: Nina Andreeva, PhD Candidate, University of Cambridge Judge Business School

    Bio

    Nina AndreevaNina Andreeva is a PhD candidate at the Cambridge University Judge Business School. Her research interests include risk management, stress testing and impact of rare events on organisations. Prior to returning to academia she spent 7 years working as a risk manager for an European investment bank in the City of London. Her last role entailed heading a team of counterparty risk professionals on the trading floor. She has degrees from State University of Management in Moscow, London School of Economics and Political Sciences and University of Cambridge and is a member of Jesus College Cambridge.

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Organising Committee

Organising Committee Chair

  • Michelle Tuveson, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Organising Committee

  • Andrew Coburn, Risk Management Solutions
  • Andrew Freeman, Deloitte Centre for Financial Services
  • Paul Glasserman, Columbia Business School
  • Danny Ralph, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
  • Simon Ruffle, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
  • Nick Watkins, British Antarctic Survey
  • Ruth Whaley, Regulatory Fundamentals Consulting, LLC

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