Centre for Risk Studies

2nd Risk Summit

The Human Dimension of Risk: Perception, Behaviour, and Decision Making in Risk Management

8-9 December 2010

2nd Risk Summit - The Human Dimension of Risk

Podcasts

The human dimension of risk is an important and under-explored aspect of risk management issues. How we perceive risk, and understanding patterns of behaviour and seeing how these relate to the processes of decision-making and policy development needs greater exploration. The business school's Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies 2nd Risk Summit - 'The Human Dimension of Risk: Perception, Behaviour and Decision-Making in Risk Management' - took on that gigantic challenge.

Part I

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Part II

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2nd Risk Summit - The Human Dimension of Risk

The Human Dimension of Risk

Photos from the 2nd Risk Summit, held at Cambridge Judge Business School on 8-9 December 2010, are available via Flickr.

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Meeting Partners

HSBC Deloitte Lockheed Martin

RMS
BP Nanyang Technological University

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Speakers & Presentations

Introduction

Michelle Tuveson

Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Introduction to 2nd Risk Summit

Speaker bio

Ms Michelle Tuveson is a Founder and Executive Director of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. She has worked in the technology sector for the majority of her career, with her most recent position at Lockheed Martin. Prior to that, she held positions with management strategy firm Booz Allen & Hamilton, and U.S. R&D organisation MITRE Corporation. She has been awarded by the Career Communications Group, Inc. as a Technology Star for Women in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM). She has degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Johns Hopkins University and is a member of Christ's College Cambridge.

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Professor Daniel Ralph

Professor Daniel Ralph, Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Introduction to the University of Cambridge

Speaker bio

Professor Danny Ralph is a Founder and Academic Director of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, and a Fellow of Churchill College. Danny received his PhD in 1990 from the University of Wisconsin Madison. He was a faculty member of the Mathematics & Statistics Department at the University of Melbourne before coming to Cambridge University for a joint appointment in the Engineering Department and Cambridge Judge Business School. His research interests include optimisation methods, equilibrium models for electricity markets, and risk in business decision making. He is Editor-in-Chief of Mathematical Programming (Series B).

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Professor Geoff Meeks

Professor Geoff Meeks, Acting Director of Cambridge Judge Business School

A Welcome from Cambridge Judge Business School

Speaker bio

Professor Geoff Meeks is Acting Director of Cambridge Judge Business School and Professor of Financial Accounting. Geoff's research interests include Financial reporting around major events in business finance (especially takeover, bankruptcy, IPO); creative accounting and accounting regulation; and corporate governance. Previously, Geoff has been employed by Price Waterhouse, the University of Edinburgh and the Faculty of Economics at Cambridge. He has held visiting positions at Harvard Business School, INSEAD and London School of Economics. He is a member of the Academic Panel of the Accounting Standards Board.

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Plenary Session 1: Perception

Professor Ed Bullmore

Professor Ed Bullmore, Cambridge Department of Psychiatry & Director, Behavioural & Clinical Neuroscience Institute

The Brain and Its Business Model

Speaker bio

Professor Ed Bullmore studied medicine at the University of Oxford, & St Bartholomew's Hospital in London. He trained in psychiatry at the Maudsley Hospital, London. As a Wellcome Trust Research Training Fellow, he was awarded a PhD in statistical analysis of MRI data at the Institute of Psychiatry, London. In 1999, he was appointed Professor of Psychiatry in the University of Cambridge. Since 2005 he has been Clinical Director of the Behavioural & Clinical Neuroscience Institute, and Vice-President, Experimental Medicine, for GlaxoSmithKline. He has more than 260 research publications, mainly on aspects of neuroimaging, and is a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences.

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Dr David Good

Dr David Good, King's College Cambridge

Uncertainty and Doubt in Conversation and How They Are Managed

Speaker bio

Dr David Good, Department of Social & Developmental Psychology, & King's College, University of Cambridge. Currently, he is working on how people interact with and through various new technologies, and the development of specific practical and professional skills. In late 2000, he established the Crucible Network with Dr Alan Blackwell, dedicated to interdisciplinary work in technology design with the specific goal of bringing together expertise from the Humanities and Social Sciences with that in Technology. Support for his current work includes funding from the Boeing, EPSRC, Department of Health, Technology Strategy Board, and the Royal Academy of Engineering.

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Mark Gilbert

Mark Gilbert, London Bureau Chief, Bloomberg News

Visualisation of Sentiment Indicators Used in Market Trading

Speaker bio

Mark Gilbert is London Bureau Chief and a columnist on global capital markets for Bloomberg News, and has been with the company since 1991. Mark was born in Liverpool and graduated from Kings College, Cambridge in 1989 with a BA Hons in Philosophy. He was nominated as a finalist in the Commentary category of the UK 2006 Business Journalist of the Year awards, and holds a Malcolm Forbes Award for Best Business Story from the Overseas Press Club of America. Mark is the author of Complicit: How Greed and Collusion Made the Credit Crisis Unstoppable.

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Dr Ben Hardy

Dr Ben Hardy, Research Associate, Neuroscience, Endocrinology & Finance

Systemic Risk Poll and Discussion

Speaker bio

A former IBM PhD Research Fellow and Bateman Scholar, Dr Hardy has previously worked in the pharmaceutical industry, general practice and veterinary academia. His research looks at the bodily impact of social phenomena and social impact of bodily phenomena, the role of hormones in risk perception, morale in organisations, and linguistic ambiguity in management research. He is a former Chairman of the Association of Vets in Industry.

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Panel Discussion 1

Cultures in Crisis: Challenges of Managing Perception and Governance

Moderated by Andrew Freeman, Executive Director, Deloitte Centre for Financial Services

Panel member bio

Andrew FreemanAndrew Freeman is the Executive Director of the Centre for Financial Services at Deloitte Services LLP and is responsible for the development of the Centre's research platforms and key activities. Andrew's focus is on building relationships with strategic clients and leading the development of Deloitte's intellectual capital on financial services industry issues. Before joining Deloitte, Andrew was a Senior Knowledge Expert in Risk at McKinsey & Company. Prior to that, Andrew was an award-winning financial journalist for more than two decades at The Economist and the Financial Times. He has authored several books and journal articles on Risk Management. He is a graduate of Balliol College, Oxford.

  • Dr Kanwardeep Ahluwalia, Managing Director, Risk Management, Swiss Re Group

    Panel member bio

    Dr Kanwardeep AhluwaliaDr Kanwardeep Ahluwalia is Head of Financial Risk Management for Swiss Re Group. In this capacity he is a regular participant in the Investment Committee and Finance & Risk Committee of the Board. Kanwardeep started his career in the Risk Assessment Group of the Securities & Futures Authority in 1994. He joined the US investment bank Bear Stearns in 1996 and rose to the position of Chief Risk Officer (Europe & Asia) and Global Head of Market Risk before moving to Swiss Re. Kanwardeep holds an MA degree in physics from the University of Oxford and a PhD in theoretical physics from the University of Cambridge.

  • Robert Hayes, Senior Fellow, Microsoft Institute for Advanced Technology in Governments

    Panel member bio

    Robert HayesRobert Hayes is a Senior Fellow of the Microsoft Institute for Advanced Technology in Governments; a small group established to give high level support and advice to governments on the threats and opportunities posed by emerging technologies. He has over 30 years' experience working for the UK Government in senior positions in the law enforcement, security and intelligence community; he has also been a Senior Civil Servant in two UK Government Departments. Prior to joining Microsoft he was Head of the UK National Technical Assistance Centre (NTAC). Robert holds a BSc in Psychology and is a Fellow of the British Computer Society.

  • Dr Andrew Coburn, Senior Vice President, RMS

    Panel member bio

    Dr Andrew CoburnDr Andrew Coburn is Vice President of Catastrophe Research at Risk Management Solutions, the leading provider of catastrophe risk models to the insurance industry. Andrew has also provided research inputs into government policy, such as House of Congress legislation on terrorism risk management policy and urban planning for disaster mitigation in Mexico, Metro Manila, and Southern Italy. Andrew is one of the leading contributors to the creation of the class of catastrophe models that over the past 20 years has come to be an accepted part both of business management in financial services and of public policy making for societal risk. He has extensive experience in developing models and using them for business decision support.

  • Harlan Loeb, Executive Vice President and US Director of Issues & Crisis, Edelman

    Panel member bio

    Harlan LoebHarlan Loeb is Executive Vice President and US Director of Issues, Crisis & Risk Management at Edelman. Harlan is an internationally recognised expert in reputational risk management. In partnership with leading academics from schools including the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, he routinely works with boards and senior executives to build reputational risk into enterprise risk models. He is a graduate of Vassar College and earned his law degree with honours from the University of Minnesota. Harlan is also Professor of Crisis and the Court of Public Opinion at Northwestern Law School.

  • Professor Tso-Chien Pan, Dean, College of Engineering & Director, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

    Panel member bio

    Professor Tso-Chien PanProfessor Tso-Chien Pan is Dean of the College of Engineering & Director of Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Professor Pan specializes in the analysis and design of structures against dynamic loading. Over the years, he has carried out many research projects in the area of dynamic structural response to shock and blast loading, as well as earthquake excitations. As Founding Director, Professor Pan is spearheading the development of ICRM, a university-wide research institute, to look into the effects of natural and man-made disasters on society.

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Plenary Session 2: Behaviour

Professor Haresh Shah

Professor Haresh Shah, Chairman of Advisory Board, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & Emeritus Professor of Stanford University

Insights from the Asian Micro-Insurance Markets: How the Last Mile Can Be Connected

Speaker bio

Professor Haresh Shah is the Chairman of the Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & Emeritus Obayashi Professor of Engineering at Stanford University. Haresh is currently the Chairman of the World Seismic Safety Initiative. He was a founder and Senior Advisor to RMS. He has served Stanford University in many capacities, including Chairman of the Department of Civil Engineering and Founding Director of the John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Centre. Haresh was awarded "The Top Earthquake Engineer of the 20th Century" given by the ATC and the Engineering News Record of USA.

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Dr Leslie Knapp

Dr Leslie Knapp, Reader, Cambridge Department of Anthropology

Learning from Primates: Group Behaviour and Cooperation

Speaker bio

Dr Leslie Knapp is a Reader in Primate Genetics and Behaviour in the Department of Biological Anthropology at the University Cambridge. Sheleads the Primate Immunogenetics and Molecular Ecology (PrIME) Research Group, focussing her research on the study of genes and genetic diversity in humans and non-human primates. She works with international collaborators in Asia, Africa and South America. She is a Fellow and College Lecturer in Biological Natural Sciences and Tutor at Emmanuel College, Cambridge. Before moving to Cambridge, she conducted postdoctoral research at the University of Wisconsin, Madison and received her PhD from the University of Caifornia, Los Angeles.

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Dr D'Maris Coffman

Dr D'Maris Coffman, Director, Winton Centre for Financial History

Bubbles, Manias and Market Failures: From Tulips to Subprime

Speaker bio

D'Maris Coffman is the Director of the Winton Centre for Financial History & the Mary Bateson Research Fellow at Newnham College, Cambridge. Most of her current research is on the relationship between public finance and private capital markets in early modern and early late modern Europe. She manages the European State Finance Database. She received her MA and PhD in History from the University of Pennsylvania and her BSc in Economics from theWharton School. She has offered courses to advanced undergraduates and graduate students at Penn and Cambridge in early modern public finance, economic thought, and the development of financial capitalism.

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Cindy Levy

Cindy Levy, Director, UK Financial Services and Risk Management Practices, McKinsey & Company

Taking Control of Organisational Risk Culture

Speaker bio

Cindy Levy is a Director based in McKinsey's London office. She leads the UK Financial Services and Risk Management Practices. Cindy works primarily for global banks and asset managers on the strategy, organisation and risk management agendas. She leads McKinsey's knowledge on risk topics such as risk culture, operational risk and risk organisation. Previously, Cindy worked for Goldman Sachs & Co in New York in Corporate Finance. During this period she analysed and executed a number of transactions including equity offerings, debt offerings and mergers. Cindy received an AB in Economics from Harvard University and an MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business.

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Plenary Session 3: Decision-Making

Richard Bronk

Richard Bronk, Visiting Fellow, European Institute, London School of Economics

Knightian Uncertainty and Innovation: A Philosophical Look at the Recent Financial Crisis

Speaker bio

Richard Bronk is a writer and Visiting Fellow at the European Institute, London School of Economics with expertise in the history of ideas, philosophy of economics, comparative corporate governance and European political economy. He spent 17 years in the City of London - positions including head of European equities at Baring Asset Management, European equity strategist at Merrill Lynch, and Adviser on European capital markets and political economy at the Bank of England. Richard is author of Progress and the Invisible Hand - the Philosophy and Economics of Human Advance and The Romantic Economist - Imagination in Economics. He has an MA in Classics and Philosophy from Merton College, Oxford.

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Andrew Freeman

Andrew Freeman, Executive Director, Deloitte Centre for Financial Services

Culture and Link to Operational Performance

Speaker bio

Andrew Freeman is the Executive Director of the Centre for Financial Services at Deloitte Services LLP and is responsible for the development of the Centre's research platforms and key activities. Andrew's focus is on building relationships with strategic clients and leading the development of Deloitte's intellectual capital on financial services industry issues. Before joining Deloitte, Andrew was a Senior Knowledge Expert in Risk at McKinsey & Company. Prior to that, Andrew was an award-winning financial journalist for more than two decades at The Economist and the Financial Times. He has authored several books and journal articles on Risk Management. He is a graduate of Balliol College, Oxford.

Downloadable resources:
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Podcast
Alan Smith

Alan Smith, Global Head of Risk Strategy, HSBC

Managing Risk Strategy in Banking - Balancing the Human and the Financial

Speaker bio

Alan Smith is Global Head of Risk Strategy within HSBC's Global Risk function. He is responsible for the Risk Appetite, ICAAP, Economic Capital, Scenario Stress Testing, and Risk Methodology infrastructures for the Group. He is a member of the Global Risk Management Board, the Capital Demand and Basel 2 Oversight Committees and chairs the Group Economic Capital and Scenario Stress Testing Committees. Prior to HSBC, Alan worked with KPMG London, latterly within its Financial Sector Advisory practice. Alan is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales and has an MBA in Finance from Cass Business School, City University London.

Downloadable resources:
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Dr William Janeway

Dr William Janeway, Senior Advisor, Warburg Pincus

Hedging Uncertainty as a Venture Capitalist

Speaker bio

Dr William H. Janeway is Senior Advisor at Warburg Pincus. He received his PhD in economics from Cambridge University where he was a Marshall Scholar. He was valedictorian of the class of 1965 at Princeton University. Bill is a Director at Nuance Communications, O'Reilly Media, and Wall Street Systems and on the Board of Managers of Roubini Global Economics. He is Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Cambridge in America, University of Cambridge, Co-Chair of Cambridge's 800th Anniversary Capital Campaign, and a Founder Member of the Board of Managers of the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF). He is a member of the Board of Governors of the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET).

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Panel Discussion 2

Decision Making: Before and After a Crisis

Moderated by Dr Jonathan Grant, President, RAND Europe

Panel member bio

Dr Jonathan GrantDr. Jonathan Grant is President of RAND Europe. He received his PhD from the Faculty of Medicine, University of London and has published extensively on health R&D policy, the use of research and evidence in policy making and population policy issues. He contributes to the implementation of the UK Department of Health's internationally acclaimed R&D strategy, "Best Research for Best Health". Jonathan led the UK's National Audit Office's examination into the use of research in policy making, "Getting the Evidence", and was principal investigator of an influential study sponsored by the European Commission looking at Europe's low fertility. He was formerly Head of Policy at the Wellcome Trust.

  • Dr John Coates, Senior Research Fellow, Cambridge Judge Business School

    Panel member bio

    Dr John CoatesDr John Coates is a Senior Research Fellow in Neuroscience and Finance at Cambridge Judge Business School and works closely with the Department of Physiology, Development and Neuroscience on a research project focused on the endocrine system and financial risk taking. Previously, John traded derivatives for Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, and ran a trading desk for Deutsche Bank specialising in short dated options, swaptions, and exotic derivatives. He developed techniques for valuing and arbitraging the tails of probability distributions, and for trading low probability events such financial crises. He received his MPhil and PhD from the University of Cambridge.

  • Professor Charles Kennel, UCSD Sustainability Solutions Centre

    Panel member bio

    Professor Charles KennelProfessor Charles Kennel is a Distinguished Professor, Emeritus, of Atmospheric Sciences at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Senior Strategist for the UCSD Sustainability Solutions Institute, and co-leads the University of Cambridge/UCSD GlobalWater Initiative. Charles' past positions include Associate Administrator of NASA and Director of Mission to Planet Earth, Director and Dean of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Vice Chancellor of UCSD's Marine Sciences, and UCLA's Physics Dept Chair and Executive Vice Chancellor. He presently chairs the California Council on Science & Technology and the Space Studies Board of the US National Academy of Sciences. Charlie was educated in astronomy and astrophysics at Harvard and Princeton.

  • Dr Peter Nakada, Managing Director, RMS

    Panel member bio

    Dr Peter NakadaPeter Nakada is Managing Director of RMS Capital Markets Solutions. Peter's background has focused on how to bring risk quantification, technology, and management science together to help financial institutions make better risk return decisions. Previously, Peter was a co-founder of ERisk, a firm that provided risk and capital management software and consulting to the banking industry. Before that, he was a partner in Oliver, Wyman & Company's risk management practice. Peter has a BA in Engineering Sciences from Harvard College, an MS in Engineering Management from Stanford University, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder.

  • Dr Peter Stern, Senior Editor, SCIENCE

    Panel member bio

    Dr Peter SternDr Peter Stern serves as senior editor for Science, the prestigious weekly journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Previously, he was a research scientist at the Department of Neurophysiology, Max-Planck-Institute for Brain Research, in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, and a postdoctoral research fellow in the Pharmacology Department of University College London. Peter received his PhD in medicine from the University of Heidelberg, and is an expert in the fields of cellular and molecular neuroscience, electrophysiology, neuropharmacology, higher brain functions, brain scanning and fMRI, and studies on consciousness and perception. Other areas of interest include psychology, intelligence research, philosophy, history, and economy.

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Plenary Session 4: Policy Setting and Adoption

Dr Simon Singh

Dr Simon Singh, TV Director, Author, and Science Journalist

Libel Laws and the Influences on Free Communication

Speaker bio

Dr Simon Singh is a TV director, author and science journalist. Having completed his PhD in particle Physics at the University of Cambridge, Simon joined the BBC's science department in 1990. He was a producer and director on programmes such as "Tomorrow's World" and "Horizon". His documentary about the world's most notorious mathematical problem was nominated for an Emmy and won a BAFTA. In 1997 he wrote Fermat's Last Theorem, which was the first maths book to become a no.1 bestseller in Britain and which has been translated into over 25 languages. He is also the author of The Code Book, Big Bang, and Trick or Treatment.

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Podcast
Dr Anna Dempster

Dr Anna Dempster, Senior Lecturer, Sotheby's Institute of Art & Birkbeck College

Views into the Creative Industries

Speaker bio

Dr Anna Dempster is a Senior Lecturer at the Sotheby's Institute of Art and the Dept of Management, Birkbeck College, University of London. In 2006 Anna was appointed Research Director of the Creative Industries Observatory at the London College of Communication, University of the Arts. She was the creative industries advisor for NESTA, DCMS, the Design Council and the Work Foundation. Anna has an MA and MPhil in History from Cambridge and a PhD in Strategy from Cambridge Judge Business School. She was a research fellow at the London Business School - Centre for the Network Economy and visiting professor at Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University.

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Dr William Nuttall

Dr William Nuttall, Senior Lecturer, Cambridge Judge Business School

Nuclear Renaissance - The Proliferation Challenge

Speaker bio

Dr William J. Nuttall is a Senior Lecturer in Technology Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School. He has a leading role in the ESRC Electricity Policy Research Group and is a member of the new Cambridge Nuclear Energy Centre. He is the author of Nuclear Renaissance, published in 2005. Prior to coming to Cambridge, he worked at the Institute of Physics on a wide range of physics based policy issues after two post doctoral research positions using large physics facilities. He was founding Programme Director for the Cambridge-MIT Institute sponsored Master's degree in Technology Policy. Bill earned a PhD in Physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as a Fulbright Awardee. He is a Fellow of Hughes Hall, Cambridge.

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Organising Committee

Organising Committee Chair

  • Michelle Tuveson, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Organising Committee

  • Philippa Bradshaw, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
  • Andrew Coburn, RMS
  • Anna Dempster, Sotheby's Institute of Art & Birkbeck College
  • Andrew Freeman, Deloitte Centre for Financial Services
  • Danny Ralph, Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
  • Ruth Whaley, Regulatory Fundamentals Consulting, LLC

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